There were expert projections and humourous memes aplenty in the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic prognosticating that the prolonged period in quarantine could engender a new baby boom.

Unfortunately, in the eyes of many, this prediction did not come to pass.

In fact, due to a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.26 in 2023 — the lowest in documented history dating back to 1921 — Canada now bears the status of being what the United Nations designates as a “lowest-low” fertility nation because it slipped beneath the 1.3 threshold.

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Canada joined the ranks of South Korea (0.72), Spain (1.19), Italy (1.2) and Japan (1.2). Comparatively, the United States registered a TFR of 1.62 last year.

Ten of the 13 provinces or territories logged record-low figures. British Columbia’s natality was particularly glaring at 1.0 in 2023 — less than half the replacement fertility baseline of 2.1. Only Nunavut (2.48), Saskatchewan (1.63) and Manitoba (1.52) transcended the national average.

Andrea Mrozek, a family policy senior fellow with the non-partisan think tank Cardus, told The Catholic Register that it is “not hugely surprising” but she feels “sadness on a personal level” because of Canada’s 1.26 TFR.

Citing observations made in American social scientist Catherine Ruth Pakaluk’s 2024 book Hannah's Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth, Mrozek said the societal mentality has shifted from “when to stop having children” to “when to start having children.”

“Today the ‘life scripts’ we describe as normal are the lengthy education periods, paying back your student debt, marriage is waning, partnerships are hard to find, dating is terrible — all of this culminates in delayed fertility and not having children at all,” said Mrozek.

The precarious ramifications of a continued collapse of fertility rates have been examined by experts around the world because according to the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) institute, the universal TFR has more than halved from 4.84 in 1950 to 2.23 in 2021. The expert consensus is that a sustained low fertility rate will result in a diminished working-age population, a maelstrom of pressure on the social welfare system and impediments to economic growth and societal innovation.

Though the TFR in Canada is waning, the country’s overall population is on the upswing due to immigration. Consider the Canadian population grew from 40 million in June 2023 to over 41 million 10 months later in April 2024. 

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada stated that over 500,000 new permanent residents will be welcomed into the country this calendar year and the goal is to open the doors to another half million in 2025. Notably the 3.2-per-cent population growth from 2022 to 2023 represented the highest rate since 1957, which was amid the baby boom.

Still, the shockwave of this one-year growth rate 200- or 300-per-cent higher than the traditional annual average (1 to 1.5) has the majority of Canadians expressing concerns over the immigration system, according to multiple recent surveys. In particular, a Nanos survey from Sept. 19 reveals that 64 per cent of Canadians want fewer refugees to be accepted in 2025.

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Responding to the sentiment shift, Dr. Don Kerr, a demographer who teaches at King’s University College, a Catholic liberals arts institute federated with Western University in London, Ont., suggested that on balance, “Canadians are not becoming anti-immigrant.”

“Most take pride in our immigration system and cultural diversity, but they are not blind,” said Kerr. “They can see that this file has been somewhat mismanaged. The federal government is trying to take control and reduce the population growth. If we do, I’d expect that we’ll return to something normal, like one per cent a year. It is a challenge right now because it is a lot easier to increase immigration than reduce.”

Indeed, the federal government announced it is capping the number of international study permits and reducing the amount of Temporary Foreign Workers an employer can hire.

But will lawmakers take action in specifically addressing the country’s “lowest-low” fertility status? Mrozek said Canada’s politicians must be attuned to the problem before any pro-family policy can be put into effect.

“We need all cylinders to be firing,” said Mrozek. “We need everyone to say ‘this low fertility is a terrible problem. How are we going to fix it?’ We don’t even have that right now. I don’t know of a single politician who has (spoken) about it. We need to establish that it does not reflect women's empowerment that we have such a low fertility rate. We need to have everyone understanding the research shows women want to have more kids than they're having, not fewer.”

There is no great expectation on Mrozek’s part that the parties championing and legislatively pushing for widespread access to contraceptives — the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois — will work to stem the worsening TFR tide.  

As for Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, the pro-life advocacy organization Campaign Life Coalition shared a letter with The National Post that the 45-year-old politician wrote on Sept. 11 to Canadian pro-lifer Don Plemel, a Saskatoon resident who inquired about his stances on life issues.

“While my government will not introduce or pass a law banning abortions, there are many other ways to support women who want to bring a child into the world,” wrote Poilievre. “I do not believe that abortion should be the only option available to women faced with an unexpected pregnancy.

“We can ease the challenges of putting a child up for adoption by supporting women through all nine months of pregnancy … I believe focusing on bills that promote adoption and help pregnant women through crises would do greater good.”

The Conservative Party’s 2023 Policy Declaration booklet includes a promise to “create a National Adoption Strategy including an awareness campaign to promote domestic adoption and work with the provinces to ensure equal access to adoption for all children.” The party also declared its belief that domestic adoption should be tax-refundable and merit tax incentives.

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While Mrozek said it would be valuable to have a prime minister “talking up adoption every week,” it is important to note that “it is incredibly difficult to adopt In Canada today” and adoption is provincially regulated.

As for abortion, Mrozek noted how “it is often not brought up” in discussions about a country’s fertility rate, but she views “rising access to abortion as yet another detrimental factor on the cultural landscape teaching us that children are a burden, not a gift.